Follow-up decay
Your leads have a half-life.
Every day between the last handshake and the first email costs you pipeline you already paid for on the floor.
Your inputs
Days until first follow-up
11 days
Est.
Est.
€
€90,958
Pipeline leak
€135,614
Pipeline if contacted day 1
11.6 d
Half-life of win rate
The show closes Thursday. Your CRM should be full Thursday night — not next Tuesday.
Exponential decay of win rate from day one to your follow-up day.
Fig. A
Win rate decay
| Day 0 win rate | 20.0% |
|---|---|
| Day 11 win rate | 10.3% |
| Decay constant | 0.06 |
The maths — every coefficient shown
Real prospects[your input]120 × 40% = 48
Contacted[your input]48 × 60% = 29
Pipeline at day 1[industry benchmark]prospects × deal × win rate = €135,614
Pipeline leak[your input]ideal − actual = €90,958
The show closes Thursday. Your CRM should be full Thursday night — not next Tuesday.
Model the cost per meetingEmail me this as a one-page brief
Your numbers, laid out for the conversation where someone asks whether the show is worth it.
No spam. One email, the file, done.