Rebooking risk
Churn isn't a rate. It's a line in next year's budget.
Every point of rebooking you lose shows up twice — revenue out, acquisition cost in.
Your inputs
€
€
Est.
€492,544
Annual damage
102
Exhibitors not rebooking
€30,400
Value per rebooking point
Every point of rebooking rate is worth €30,400 in annual revenue — churn is a finance line, not a sales footnote.
Revenue at risk from churn and replacement cost.
Fig. A
Rebooking waterfall
| This edition revenue | €3,040,000 |
|---|---|
| Churn out | −€972,800 |
| Replacement cost | −€200,704 |
| Net damage | −€492,544 |
The maths — every coefficient shown
Churn count[your input]320 × (1 − 68%) = 102
Replacement cost[your input]72 × €2,800 = €200,704
Annual damage[your input]replacement cost + unreplaced revenue = €492,544
Exhibitors don't renew because the coffee was good. They renew when the numbers from last time made the decision obvious.
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